The delivery man gives the bag from grocery store to the woman to her home
Amid the pandemic, tens of millions of US consumers became online grocery shoppers for the first time. In 2021, that behaviour will go from trial to habit for many people.

This is according to a report by eMarketer which found that online grocery sales in the US jumped 54% last year to $95.82bn, giving it a 12% share of total e-commerce sales and 7.4% of all grocery sales.

“The pandemic pushed consumers to search for a safe and convenient way of getting essential grocery items, and many retailers adapted to that demand,” said Whitney Birdsall, eMarketer senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“With the growing number of stores offering curbside pickup and an increase in features offered by grocery delivery apps, consumers are now presented with a variety of incentives and options to order their groceries online. A large portion of consumers who became first-time online grocery buyers during the pandemic now prefer this mode of grocery shopping due to convenience.”

Looking ahead, growth is likely to slow as the vaccine rollout allows shoppers to more comfortably return to stores. Nevertheless, eMarketer expects a portion of online grocery shopping will remain, pushing past $100bn in spending for the first time in 2021, a full year ahead of previous estimates. And by 2023, online grocery sales will make up 11.2% of total US grocery sales.

The growth of grocery e-commerce sales can largely be attributed to first-time buyers entering the market. Last year, the number of digital grocery buyers ages 14 and older in the US (who made a purchase at least once during the year) jumped 42.6% to 131.6 million. By 2022, eMarketer expects that more than half of the US population will be digital grocery buyers.

“Many low-propensity buyers will return to their pre-pandemic purchase behaviours once the threat is sufficiently mitigated through vaccines,” said Andrew Lipsman, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Other consumers, now acclimated to the process of buying groceries online, will do so on an occasional basis. And many who developed a regular habit around buying groceries online will carry the behaviour forward. Continued growth in digital grocery will now depend more on purchase frequency than new buyers entering the category.”

The growth of online grocery sales will also be driven by higher spending per buyer. eMarketer estimates annual spending per buyer at $728 for 2020 and $818 in 2021. By 2023, it expects that figure to exceed $1,000.