Latest forecasts from IGD suggest the global grocery retail market is on track to generate an additional $440bn in sales between 2020 and 2022, yielding a 3.1% CAGR.

This follows the exceptionally strong performance of grocery retailing in 2020 when the top 20 markets grew by $280bn – an 8.8% year-on-year rise. This was driven by a shift in consumer spending from out-of-home to at-home as a result of pandemic lockdown restrictions.

IGD’s latest forecasts, which have been recalibrated to take into account the impact of the pandemic, suggest India will be the fastest growing country over the period 2020-22 with a CAGR of 7.2%, whilst the US will remain the leading market.

In the medium-term, Central and Eastern Europe is expected to grow faster than Western Europe, whilst growth in China is predicated to remain robust with an accelerated shift towards online.

In the UK, IGD expects the changed retail landscape to retain some of its new features such as online shopping and big weekly shops.

Commenting on Western Europe, IGD’s Head of EMEA Jon Wright said: “Economic challenges are expected across most of Western Europe in 2021, so retailers will need to focus on price to remain competitive. Pre-COVID trends have been accelerated by the pandemic, which has hastened the switch to online across most markets, resulting in further investment in this channel.

“In the UK, following a dramatic shift of consumer spend from foodservice into grocery retail in 2020, sales growth will moderate as the national vaccination programme allows the hospitality sector to reopen. Online is set to retain its elevated market share and big weekly shops will remain popular. Winding down of financial support and rising unemployment will result in some households economising on grocery shopping while others may spend less as eating out begins to recover.”

Looking at North America, Stewart Samuel, Programme Director at IGD Canada, commented: “There’s a high degree of uncertainty relating to the economic outlook in the US, which is dependent on the level of financial support from the new administration and the vaccine roll-out. We expect relatively flat growth over the next two years but any growth we do see is likely to be driven by ecommerce and discount and value formats.

“The pandemic has slowed the gradual loss of share by supermarkets and hypermarkets as shoppers have consolidated their trips in larger stores and we expect this trend to continue. Suppliers have had an unprecedented opportunity to capture new households during the pandemic. Focusing on retention and repeat purchase will help to consolidate the share gains from 2020.”